Shale gas cake is difficult to explore and test the technical strength
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However, over half of the time, production is far from half of the expected target, and the development of the second round of shale gas tendering blocks is slow and difficult. "Two barrels of oil" as the main force, the results are significant, but the cost is very high; many enterprises entering the shale gas development field through bidding, suffering from insufficient funds or lack of experience and technology, are in a dilemma.
The second round of bidding has passed for a year, and the third round of bidding started soon. Standing on this time node, we can't help but ask: What is the progress of shale gas development in China? What breakthroughs have you made? What are the problems? What is the core of the next step? After the vigorous "shale gas heat" in 2012, the opening of the "golden age" of shale gas may require more rationality and patience.
"6.5 billion squares" meets the standard dystocia
"China's shale gas development has just started, and the progress is 'pleasing', but the gap between reality and ideal has impacted the Chinese people's high hopes and eager expectations for shale gas." An insider of the Ministry of Land and Resources summed up the development of shale gas industry in the past five years. Achievements.
According to the statistics of the Ministry of Land and Resources, as of the end of March 2013, the national shale gas exploration and development has invested a total of 7 billion yuan, and a total of 130 shale gas wells have been implemented (including 46 geological survey wells and 55 vertical wells). 28 horizontal wells, 9000 km of 2D earthquakes and 800 km2 of 3D earthquakes, mainly distributed in Sichuan, Shaanxi, Chongqing and other places, and invested and explored by companies such as PetroChina, Sinopec and Yanchang Petroleum. In 2012, the country's shale gas production was about 30 million square meters, and it sold 15 million square meters through natural gas pipeline network.
According to the statistics of the Oil and Gas Resources Survey Center of the China Geological Survey, after hydraulic fracturing and testing, there are currently 23 shale gas wells with a daily output exceeding 10,000 square meters, 10 with more than 100,000 square meters, and 4 for trial mining. It is estimated that this year's shale gas production can reach 200 million square meters.
However, this is far from the goal set by the shale gas “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€.
According to a comparative statistic made by the Ministry of Land and Resources: in terms of proven reserves, the goal of the plan is to achieve a proven geological reserve of 600 billion cubic meters and a recoverable reserve of 200 billion cubic meters during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. Reserves are released; in terms of production, the planned target is to reach 6.5 billion cubic meters, and the actual output is less than 500 million cubic meters. In addition, the plan proposes to form a breakthrough in the exploration and development of key technologies and supporting equipment during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, and at the same time form a series of standards such as test analysis and testing, exploration and development, and environmental protection. The reality is that technology and equipment are in some fields and links. Breakthroughs and progress have been made, but no national standards have been introduced.
“More than half of the time, but the output is far less than half of the planned target.†Zhang Yousheng, director of the Energy Economics and Development Strategy Research Center of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that the development of China’s shale gas industry is still in its infancy, and there is still no understanding. In this context, the formulation of plans to guide and promote the development of the shale gas industry is undeniable, but the scientific nature is also controversial.
“The shale gas exploration cycle is related to the complexity and scale of the exploration block. In the case of breakthroughs in technology, it takes 3-5 years for the development of large and medium-sized blocks. This is calculated from the first round of bidding. The whole 'Twelfth Five-Year' should be in the exploration stage, and only some of the blocks may enter the trial mining stage,†said Guo Xinjiang, senior engineer of Sinopec's Southwest Oil and Gas Branch.
Li Yulong, a strategic management expert at CNPC, pointed out that since China's shale gas development is still in the early stage, it should focus on technology research and development rather than setting too specific targets. "Now the expectations for the shale gas industry are too high, and the targets set are too ambitious, and from the current mining situation, it may not meet expectations," he said.
"Two barrels of oil" spare no expense
If it is difficult to achieve the expected goals, then what is the actual progress? Counting the "main force" of China's shale gas development - the progress made by PetroChina and Sinopec in the field of shale gas in recent years, the results are undeniable, but the price is not cheap.
Statistics from the Ministry of Land and Resources show that PetroChina has built two national-level shale gas demonstration zones with a focus on Changning, Weiyuan and Zhaotong, with a cumulative investment of more than 4 billion yuan. Among them, Changning 201 horizontal well obtained high yield and became the first commercial shale gas horizontal well in China.
Sinopec made breakthroughs in the continental exploration of the Sichuan Basin, the marine facies of the Sichuan Basin, and the Paleogene in the eastern fault basin, with a total investment of 2.3 billion yuan. At present, 2,500 km of 2D earthquakes have been implemented, 26 shale gas drillings (17 horizontal wells), 23 drilling holes (15 horizontal wells), and high production in the horizontal wells in Fuling, Chongqing. Wanfang.
"Technically, PetroChina has made important progress in horizontal well fracture reformation and microseismic monitoring technology. Sinopec has achieved in key completion tool development, horizontal well drilling fluid, fracturing fluid system development and fracturing equipment development. Progress.†Che Changbo, deputy director of the Ministry of Land and Resources Survey, concluded in a public meeting in March this year.
With the "base gas", "two barrels of oil" also set a grand goal of developing shale gas. Among them, PetroChina plans to drill 122 horizontal wells and put into operation 113 in 2013-2015. By 2015, it will complete 1.5 billion cubic meters of shale gas commercial gas production, with a daily gas production capacity of 5.38 million square meters. In 2020, it will achieve shale gas production of 20 billion square meters. In 2030, it will reach 50 billion square meters. PetroChina also plans to invest 350 million yuan to build 1.5 billion cubic meters per year of shale gas transmission capacity in the Changning and Zhaotong blocks, and the shale gas in the Weiyuan block is connected to conventional gas pipelines.
Sinopec plans to use two sets of main shale in southern China as exploration and development targets. By the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the newly-added shale gas proven reserves will be 50 billion square meters, and the new shale gas production capacity will be 150 million square meters to realize the shale gas year. The output is 130 million square meters and the utilization is 100 million square meters. On the one hand, relying on shale gas power generation to realize internal power generation in the gas field, on the other hand, directly enter the natural gas pipeline network in a place with good natural gas pipeline transportation base conditions, and plan to construct a pipeline network with a gas transmission scale of 500,000 cubic meters per day. The shale gas is transported externally.
However, the above results have been costly. In the actual work, Wang Qiang, an expert in the non-conventional technical department of Halliburton, found that the cost of developing shale gas in China is about 2-3 times that of foreign countries. The main reason comes from three aspects: First, the formation pressure is insufficient, and shale gas has Appropriate production conditions, but no suitable storage conditions, and abnormal formation stress can easily lead to wellbore collapse, lost circulation and wellbore deformation; second, due to insufficient development experience, long drilling cycle, 30 days in North America can drill wells In China, it may take 60-90 days. Third, domestic equipment is lacking or not up to standard. Some equipments of PetroChina and Sinopec can be replaced, but the cost is high. In addition, due to road conditions, some equipment cannot reach the well site for use.
“Currently, PetroChina’s development of shale gas can be described as “regardless of cost.†According to Wang Lansheng, deputy chief geologist of the Research Institute of Exploration and Development of PetroChina Southwest Oil and Gas Field Company, the current demand for shale gas in PetroChina is 8%, while conventional oil and gas The requirement is 12%. "If you consider the economic benefits alone, you can't do it."
"Private team" dilemma
Compared with the two barrels of oil, many companies that have obtained shale gas exploration rights through previous bidding have suffered from restrictions in terms of capital, technology or talents, and they are quite "difficult."
From 2010 to 2012, the Ministry of Land and Resources organized two rounds of bidding for shale gas blocks. In particular, the second round of bidding held at the end of 2012, due to the opening of the gate to various capitals, attracted many state-owned coal enterprises, electricity companies and private enterprises to participate. In the end, 16 companies won the bid for 19 blocks, including 6 central enterprises, 8 local enterprises and 2 private enterprises. Among the listed companies, Yongtai Energy's Huaying Shanxi Energy Investment Co., Ltd. won the bid for a block in Guizhou, and Shenhua's Shenhua Geological Exploration Co., Ltd. won the bid for a block in Hunan.
The 16 successful bidders promised to invest 12.8 billion yuan in exploration funds in 19 blocks and 20,000 square kilometers in three years, and plan to invest about 3 billion yuan in 2013. One year has passed, what is the current development progress? Many insiders have admitted to the China Securities Journal that the progress is slow and not as expected.
According to the statistics of the Oil and Gas Resources Survey Center of the China Geological Survey, as of September this year, the second round of shale gas bidding block preliminary statistics, completed 5,069 kilometers of field geological route survey, completed 46% of the workload; field profile measured 280.9 thousand Meters, 58.9% of the workload; 2,22.8 km of 2D seismic acquisition, 14.2% of the workload; 5 of the drilling, 2.3% of the workload; 6750 of the analysis and testing, 6.6% of the workload.
According to the partition block, Hunan Baojing completed the 324.64 km 2D seismic data acquisition, Guizhou Fenggang 3 block completed 288 km data acquisition, Guizhou Conggong completed 15 side lines, 430 km 2D seismic acquisition and interpretation, Huadian The two parts of the Hunan and Hubei blocks, as well as the Jiangxi and Henan blocks, have completed the preliminary two-dimensional earthquake test and are currently preparing for two-dimensional seismic acquisition. In addition, Hunan Baojing, Chongqing Chengkou, Hunan Longshan and other blocks have carried out the construction of geological shallow wells in the block.
An industry insider concluded that there are three main reasons for the slow progress: First, the geological conditions of the block are very complicated, and compared to the block in the hands of two barrels of oil, the block that has been tendered is “not good, can The second is that the successful bidders have not done any work on shale gas development, lacking technical experience and talent team. Third, the quality of the construction team hired is uneven and needs to be optimized.
“Although the threshold for entry is reduced, the annual investment in shale gas development is three times that of conventional natural gas. The demand for funds is large, and the requirements for investment and financing are also high. The second round of tendering is slow, a very important reason. It is because many companies lack money and do not invest according to the regulations. Of course, this is also related to the big economic environment." One insider of the Ministry of Land and Resources said frankly.
Looking forward to the "Golden Age"
I have experienced the excitement of the “early taste†shale gas cake, and experienced the confusion and worry during the “feeding†process. In the next stage, where should the road for the commercial development of shale gas in China be pointed?
In the eyes of many industry insiders, the current attitude of the country to develop shale gas has become very clear, support policies have been introduced one after another, and domestic equipment and technology have also made great breakthroughs. The key to the next step is to continue to reduce development costs through various means.
In the second round of bidding, Huadian Group won four blocks. After nearly one year of actual drills, it has drawn up a lot of experience in reducing costs and increasing efficiency. Yang Lan, chief engineer of Huadian Group Oil and Gas Company, believes that the cost control of shale gas mining mainly includes “five major lawsâ€: First, it is necessary to increase investment, find “dessert area†with commercial exploitation value, and dilute the cost through high production; Speed ​​and wellbore quality, reduce the comprehensive cost of drilling through large-scale drilling of PAD well groups; Third, improve the scientific nature of shale fracturing schemes, achieve industrial fracturing, reduce relocation, recovery and water use, and reduce fracturing costs The fourth is to optimize the drainage plan, make full use of the formation energy, carefully work to reduce the cost of drainage; fifth, the use of environmentally friendly drilling fluids and fracturing fluids to reduce environmental costs.
It is understood that the average development cost of single wells in shale gas wells in China is about RMB 7,000-80 million. Bao Shujing, director of the shale gas chamber of the Oil and Gas Resources Survey Center of the China Geological Survey, believes that after 3-5 years, the cost is expected to be reduced to 40-50 million yuan per port. “The first is to operate through the 'well factory', and the other is to reduce the cost by 1/3-1/2 by using domestically produced equipment. It seems that the initial production of shale gas wells in China is higher than 50,000 square meters. , can achieve economic benefits." He measured.
In addition, there is another core problem that cannot be avoided. Nearly 77% of shale gas resources exist in China's existing conventional oil and gas blocks, that is, under two barrels of oil. To mobilize all parties to participate in the development of shale gas, two major oils are needed to “cut meat†and further liberalize resources.
"Shale gas development should adjust the distribution pattern of oil and gas resources development and utilization, innovate and coordinate development mechanism, improve the natural gas price formation mechanism, promote the construction of natural gas pipeline network, gas storage and other infrastructure, and bring into play the market mechanism for resource development and allocation. Role." The insiders of the Ministry of Land and Resources pointed out.
In March of this year, at a shale gas forum held in Chongqing, the organizers conducted a round of “public opinion survey†on dozens of companies participating in the conference. The results show that most enterprises believe that the development prospects of China's shale gas industry are unclear and wait and see. When asked if they will participate in the third round of bidding, 10 of the 66 companies will participate and 14 will wait and see. The remaining 42 are not interested in the competition. Policies, technologies, water resources and reserves have in turn become a concern for these companies to enter the shale gas sector.
The third round of shale gas prospecting tenders was launched soon. After five years of trial and error, exploration and summarization, can the new round of shale gas development tide open the "golden age" of China's unconventional oil and gas?