[Basic Situation]

The spot market remained weak on the 29th, with trading activity being fairly active due to the upcoming May Day holiday. However, prices dropped sharply during the session. On the international platform, inquiries were relatively quiet, but there were two shipments of 62% MNP powder for May delivery, with prices at $108 and $108.5 respectively. Additionally, some mines listed on the platform offered PB powder at $109, which later dropped to $108.5, but no counter-offers were made. By midday, the swap price fell slightly by $0.5 from noon, and overall trading volume was active. The May contract traded at $108, while the June contract saw a range between $106.25 and $106.5. In the spot market, trading activity in northern ports increased today, but transaction prices continued to decline steadily.

【Market Outlook】

Following the heavy volume seen in the downstream iron ore market on the previous day, the iron ore 1409 contract experienced significant buying pressure, leading to stabilization and a closing price of 771, up 0.39% compared to the previous day. From a technical perspective, the Brin rail contract is currently supported around the 750 level, but the resistance at the 800 level remains strong. As a result, the contract is still within a consolidation range.

[Comprehensive Analysis]

Given the recent volatility in the iron ore market, traders are advised to remain cautious. Those holding short positions should consider closing them. The I1409 contract is expected to test the 765-785 range today, with potential for further movement depending on market sentiment and macroeconomic factors. With ongoing uncertainty in the global supply chain and demand dynamics, investors should monitor key support and resistance levels closely for any signs of trend reversal. It’s essential to stay updated with real-time data and adjust strategies accordingly.