Steel Market Report: Domestic steel prices continue to rise and upward momentum weakens

In recent days, the Chinese steel market has shown a continued upward trend in domestic steel prices, although the momentum remains weak. This comes after a series of positive economic indicators were released, including GDP growth, fixed asset investment, and real estate investment figures. These data have boosted market sentiment, leading to sharp increases in stock markets, steel futures, and electronic trading platforms. Major steel producers like Angang and Shougang have also introduced new pricing strategies, with ex-factory prices stabilizing or slightly rising. As a result, spot market prices have followed suit, showing a modest upward movement. However, experts are warning that the market is entering a more complex phase, where long-short positions may intensify, increasing overall risk. There's a possibility of narrow-range volatility this week as market participants adjust their strategies. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 15, China’s GDP grew by 7.6% in the first half of the year. Fixed asset investment increased by 20.1%, while real estate development investment rose by 20.3%. Industrial output above designated size also saw an 8.9% year-on-year increase. These strong numbers have continued to drive market confidence, contributing to the rally across various sectors. The price trends for construction steel have shown slight variations between northern and southern regions. In Beijing, the impact of continuous rain led to only a small price increase, with some temporary declines. In contrast, the Shanghai market experienced a rise due to advance procurement by construction sites. Additionally, Shagang’s maintenance period caused a temporary shortage of certain specifications, making them perform better than in the north. Plate prices have also seen an upward trend, with hot-rolled coils and plates experiencing notable price increases. According to the latest monitoring by the Lange Steel Information Research Center, as of July 19, the composite steel price index reached 140.8 points, up 1.41 points from the previous week. The Long Product Price Index stood at 156.6 points, rising by 1.82 points. Meanwhile, the Sheet Price Index was 121.7 points, up 0.78 points. In major cities, the average price of Φ25mm third-grade rebar increased across the board. For instance, in Guangzhou, Φ25mm second-grade rebar saw a rise of 110 yuan, while Φ6.5mm high-grade rebar increased by 160 yuan. Hot-rolled coil prices in top-tier cities remained largely upward, with cold-rolled coils in Guangzhou surging by 110 yuan. However, in Beijing, cold-rolled coil prices showed a slight decline. Despite the price increases, low-cost transactions remain acceptable, but high turnover is somewhat lacking, indicating limited downstream demand. This has weakened the upward momentum towards the end of the week. Inventory levels continue to fall, marking the 17th consecutive week of decline. However, the rate of decline has slowed, suggesting that the market is gradually adjusting. As of July 19, the national steel inventory index was 161.97 points, down 1.75% from the previous week. Social inventory for building materials dropped by 2.24%, and slab inventory decreased by 1.21%. Although the decline has slowed, it still shows a year-on-year reduction of over 6%. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily crude steel output in early July was 1,694,800 tons, a 3.84% decrease from the previous period. The estimated national daily output was 2,083,000 tons, down 4.50%. At the end of July, the total steel inventory for key enterprises reached 12.7554 million tons, an increase of 73,900 tons compared to the previous ten-day period. Analysts from the Lange Steel Information Research Center note that while some positive changes are emerging, such as improved environmental protection measures and reduced production in some mills, the market remains volatile. Rising prices have started to show signs of weakness, with both order acceptance and willingness shrinking. Some early procurement activities have been overdrawn, and merchants are becoming more cautious about managing risks. With profit margins expanding in certain regions, the market remains sensitive, and potential shocks could occur. Overall, the steel market is expected to face increased competition between long and short positions, with rising risks and possible short-term fluctuations.

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