The increase in production rate of OPEC oil producing countries is different

Abstract The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting will be held in Vienna on the 22nd. The outside world said that this meeting will be the biggest difference in the past seven years. Participants who arrived at the venue in advance revealed that the meeting will discuss the increase in production of about 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day. The increase in production is very different...

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting will be held in Vienna on the 22nd. The outside world said that this meeting will be the biggest difference in the past seven years. Participants who arrived at the venue in advance revealed that the meeting will discuss the increase in production of about 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day.

The rate of increase in production is huge

Ecuadorian Oil Minister Peres said in Vienna on the 18th that Russia and Saudi Arabia have proposed OPEC and non-OPEC countries to increase crude oil daily by 1.5 million barrels. He said that this is the only proposal he has seen, and the proposed increase in production will come from the quotas agreed in the previous agreements. “Ecuador can increase production by 2 to 25,000 barrels per day when necessary.”

And OPEC, OPEC’s second-largest oil producer, and Iran, the third-largest oil producer, have publicly stated that they are opposed to a substantial increase in production, saying that it would violate the agreement to maintain production cuts by the end of the year. At present, the US sanctions against Iran will affect its oil industry, while Iraq has production restrictions. It is difficult for both countries to increase production substantially.

Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies have the ability to increase production, and have expressed their willingness to meet the call for oil-consuming countries such as the United States and China to cool oil prices while meeting global oil demand.

The conference will be attended by 14 OPEC members and 10 major oil producing countries, and the participating countries will account for about 50% of global supply. Saudi Arabia has recently met frequently with Russia and privately discussed the increase in production.

At a time when oil prices have risen to $70 a barrel, Saudi Arabia and Russia believe that it is time to relax the production cuts. Non-OPEC oil producers such as OPEC and Russia began joint production cuts in 2017, 1.8 million barrels per day to cut excess supply and support oil prices.

A Gulf source told the media that OPEC and other major oil producers will meet in Vienna on June 22 and will study many options to ensure the rebalancing of the oil market. "Any action will be conducted after consultations and consensus in the 24 countries," the source told Reuters.

Goldman's latest report predicts that OPEC's core member countries and Russia will increase production by 1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2018, but the production in participating countries is reduced based on other production reduction agreements, so production will be only daily compared to the second quarter of 2018. Increase 450,000 barrels.

The current expectation of increasing production continues to heat up, but the voice of opposition is also obvious. The Iranian representative to OPEC is even more blunt, and three OPEC countries such as Iran will vote against it. This means that the parties will inevitably have a fierce "crossfire" at the meeting, and Deutsche Bank believes that the members' guilt will make this meeting the most difficult one in seven years.

Supply and demand situation to be improved

After OPEC members and non-OPEC oil producers began production cuts in 2017, oil prices have risen by about 60% in one year. The agency expects that the prospects for supply and demand are still tight.

On the demand side, Goldman Sachs said it expects oil demand in 2018 to increase by 1.75 million barrels per day, which is higher than the general forecast. Goldman Sachs believes that until the second quarter of 2019, the oil market will be slightly tighter than previously expected. Goldman Sachs has revised its estimate of demand growth in emerging markets in 2018, but US activity continued to be higher than expected, and some were offset by US demand revisions.

For future oil price movements, Goldman Sachs also maintains Brent crude oil prices will rise further, risk bias may be higher than the peak estimate of 82.5 US dollars per barrel. Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to rise in the coming months and still believes that the risk bias may be higher than the US$75 per barrel at the end of the year, mainly because of the further decline in global crude oil inventories in the second half of 2018.

The International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly report: "Crude oil prices will not rise as sharply as after mid-2017, so the effect of rising oil prices on demand will also be reduced." IEA maintains 2019 increase in demand for crude oil The forecast is basically unchanged, 1.4 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to the previous report.

On the supply side, the International Energy Agency has raised its forecast for non-OPEC member crude oil production growth by 2 million barrels per day in 2018. It is expected that production growth in 2019 will be 1.7 million barrels per day. The agency said that most of the increase in crude oil production in non-OPEC member countries stems from US crude oil production.

The International Energy Agency also believes that if oil producers such as OPEC and Russia cannot make up for the loss of crude oil supply in Venezuela and Iran, the international supply and demand situation of crude oil will tend to be tense. Market-related institutions estimate that OPEC's spare capacity may fall to a minimum of 2 million barrels per day, which may make it difficult for OPEC to cope with supply shocks. For example, in the economic crisis of Venezuela, production has fallen to a 33-year low.

Non-market factors have a strong influence

In order to stabilize the trend of oil prices, cooperation between major oil producing countries is strengthening.

The Russian Ministry of Energy recently issued a statement saying that Russia and Saudi Arabia have reached a basic consensus that the "OPEC+" model should be "institutionalized" and extended to 2019 or more in order to conduct oil market monitoring and joint action when necessary. The two major oil-producing countries have planned to sign a mutual agreement that will push the cooperation between the two sides in the energy field to a new level.

Reuters quoted sources as saying that "Saudi and Russia recognize the efforts of the partners over the past year and a half, and plan to continue to cooperate and institutionalize them into a permanent framework." It is reported that Saudi Arabia plans to host a party later this year. OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers' oil summits participated in the production reduction agreement.

An OPEC source described the summit as an idea that would develop into a proposal; another source said it would be discussed at the Vienna meeting.

However, whether the efforts of major oil-producing countries can control oil prices smoothly depends on the influence of geopolitical storms. The recent push to push up oil prices came from US President Trump’s announcement to withdraw from the Iranian Nuclear Agreement.

The US government announced on May 8 that it had withdrawn from the Iranian nuclear comprehensive agreement and ordered the resumption of sanctions against Iran, including energy sanctions, suspended due to the agreement. Iran, which is heavily dependent on crude oil exports, is under pressure.

Iran’s representative to OPEC, Hussein Kazanpur Adebili, warned that when the United States last resorted to sanctions against Iran, “international oil prices rose to $140 a barrel.” Now this round of sanctions may lead to similar results. .

Some media reported that the United States recently privately pressured Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members to increase their oil production in order to offset the impact of the US blockade of Iranian oil exports.

Adbily said that the US has proposed to Saudi Arabia and other countries to increase oil production through informal channels. The reason is that the US "illegal sanctions" Iran and Venezuela, two OPEC members, banned oil exports from both countries, and now hope OPEC Other member states increased oil production to make up for the supply gap in the international market.

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