Plate is expected to usher in reversal opportunity in April

In the early part of 2013, the plate market experienced a period of fluctuation following the Spring Festival. According to data from the Lange Steel Information Research Center, by March 28, the average price of 20mm medium plates in major Chinese cities stood at 3,860 yuan per ton. This marked a slight decrease of 5 yuan compared to the end of the previous month. In Handan, the price of 20mm plates was recorded at 3,680 yuan, down about 120 yuan from the end of February. Meanwhile, in Shanghai, the price of 20mm plates reached 4,000 yuan, reflecting a drop of 70 yuan from the end of February. As seen in the chart below, after a prolonged decline in late February and early March, the market entered a consolidation phase with weaker fluctuations since mid-March. Over the past six years, the plate market has reflected the broader challenges within the steel industry. From 2007 to mid-2008, the market saw a historic rebound, with prices rising sharply from nearly 4,000 yuan to as high as 6,300 yuan. However, this period of growth was short-lived, and prices quickly declined. By the second half of April 2008, prices had fallen to a five-year low. For the next four years, prices remained largely below 5,000 yuan. Looking at the historical trend of prices between March and April over the past six years, four of those periods saw continued increases, while two ended with a bottoming out in early April. Based on this pattern, there is a higher probability of a market rebound in April this year. Furthermore, when comparing the current market conditions to the past six years, it's clear that the prices in March and April 2013 are only slightly above those seen during the 2009 economic crisis. Moreover, the current domestic economic situation is significantly better than in 2009, which suggests stronger support for the current market bottom. Taking into account the recent price trends over the last three to four months, it's reasonable to expect that plate prices will reach their lowest point in early April 2013. In early 2013, demand for plates remained weak due to a lack of optimism in downstream industries. Construction machinery sales were particularly disappointing. According to the China Industry Research Network, total sales in January and February fell significantly, with excavator sales dropping 46% year-on-year to 11,058 units, loader sales falling 32% to 16,874 units, and bulldozer sales declining by 48% to 747 units. These figures suggest that construction machinery sales are expected to continue declining in March and April. In the shipbuilding sector, global new ship orders increased slightly in February 2013, reaching 1.944 million CGT. China remained the top country in terms of order backlog, with 18,273,344 CGT, while South Korea saw a modest increase in orders. Despite this, the Chinese shipbuilding industry faced challenges, with shipbuilding completions dropping by 20.9% year-on-year in January and February, and total industrial output declining for the first time since the financial crisis. Shipbuilding orders increased slightly, but overall production and operations became more difficult. Domestic plate inventories were initially high at the start of the year, but inventory levels began to slow down, easing supply pressure. By March 22, the total plate stock in 29 key Chinese cities reached 1.668 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 29.82%. Although demand started to pick up in March, the pace of inventory reduction remained slow, and traders showed less willingness to lock in orders, which affected market consumption positively. Additionally, ex-factory prices from domestic plate producers have been declining, reducing cost support for the market. While some top-tier steelmakers like Shougang and Baotou maintained stable prices, others such as Anshan Iron and Steel and Hegang experienced significant drops. Second-tier steel mills, including Puyang, Wenfeng, Xicheng, and Handan Iron and Steel, also saw sharp price declines. Under these conditions, the market still faces downward pressure in the short term. Considering all these factors, the supply and demand imbalance remains evident. The market is expected to maintain its inventory levels in the coming weeks while demand gradually recovers. With increasing price support and improved resource liquidity, the plate market is likely to see a reversal opportunity in the second half of April.

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