The price of minerals is not the chief culprit in the low profit of the steel industry.
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[hot spot reading]
â— Oversupply restricts the long-term price of iron ore
    Oversupply has become the most important factor in suppressing iron ore prices. Morgan Stanley this week's report believes that iron ore prices will be supported in the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of next year, but there will be global oversupply in the second half of 2014. Morgan Stanley predicted on Wednesday that the average price of iron ore in the fourth quarter of 2013 was $125/ton, compared with $120/ton in the first quarter of next year, and the average price in 2014 and 2015 was $117/ton and 114 respectively. USD/ton. Citigroup expects iron ore prices to be $115/ton over the next three months as shipping iron ore supply surges. The demand for iron ore from China's economic growth will be the key to determining the future price of iron ore.
    Interpretation: Singing the iron ore market is no longer a new thing. I remember that two years ago, experts and scholars predicted that 2013 will be the turning point of the iron ore market. The oversupply will make the price of minerals fall into the downtrend channel. The fact is that, up to now, the average price of the Platts index in 2013 was 135.2 US dollars / ton, and the average price in 2012 was only 129.9 US dollars / ton, according to the rough iron ore import volume of 735 million tons last year (excluded The high and low price difference factors), the total procurement cost of domestic enterprises increased by about 3.9 billion US dollars. Fubao believes that iron ore prices are no longer a simple decision on supply and demand. No matter how the supply and demand evolve, as long as the Chinese economy does not collapse, its price will always be higher than people expected.
â—The steel industry has stepped down to make the rich altar
    According to the data, the overall operation of the steel industry is still difficult this year. Data show that from January to July, China's crude steel output increased by 7.1% year-on-year, compared with 2.1% in the same period last year. The incompatibility between the rapid release of production capacity and the slow growth of demand has led to oversupply in the market and a meager profit situation. From January to July, the industry's average sales profit margin was only 0.23%, and the main business was still on the verge of loss. Judging from this list, the actual controller of the Chuanyang Group, the Gong Chuanyang family, had a wealth of 14.593 billion yuan last year, and this year's wealth has shrunk to 2.809 billion yuan.
    Interpretation: The reasons why the iron and steel industry has gone down to create a rich altar are as follows: First, the downstream demand has shrunk. From the beginning of real estate regulation and control, to the slowdown of domestic economic growth, the release of terminal demand has also slowed down; Continued surplus, crude steel output hit new highs; Third, bank funds tightened, with the steel crisis erupted in the credit crisis, steel companies operating at high debt ratios are bound to face some pressure on the bank; the fourth point is the people The price of the "biggest culprit" has risen.
ã€related news】
â— Large credit card collective overdue Ningde steel traders are trapped in debt vortex
    Since 2013, in addition to bank loans, steel traders have added another pressure: a large number of credit cards are overdue. According to the industry's rough estimate, Ningde credit card overdue steel traders said that there are tens of thousands of people, the amount of several billion yuan. Overdue of steel traders' credit cards is often caused by the cardholders returning bank loans. According to steel traders, bank loans can't afford it, just civil disputes, not going to jail; but malicious overdraft credit cards are suspected of committing crimes. Some insiders believe that the large-scale credit card overdue for steel traders is behind the deep background of credit funds, and the bank's sudden and comprehensive collection of loans is the direct trigger for systemic risks of steel trade credit.
â— Shenhua and other coal giants will raise prices and coal prices will rebound
    As a market vane, Shenhua Group raised the price of some coal varieties on the same day. The thermal coal below 5,000 kcal in the coastal area was raised by 3 yuan to 5 yuan per ton, and the North China area was raised by 5 yuan to 10 yuan. In addition, several coal companies such as China Coal Group, which are launched in the northern port, have also raised prices simultaneously. In response to the phenomenon that coal giants have raised coal prices, the industry believes that there are three main reasons: First, since September, hydropower generation has fallen sharply, and thermal power plants have increased their power generation. Second, due to the continuous decline in coal prices in the previous period, The power plant concentrated on its own site inventory, causing the inventory to fall to the low point of the year. At present, the winter storage coal began to start in full; the third is the increase in sea freight, increasing the cost of imported coal to the shore, and the import of thermal coal continues to decrease.
â— By the end of 2017, the city plans to reduce crude steel production capacity by 12.04 million tons.
    According to the relevant requirements, based on 2012, by the end of 2017, the province will reduce the consumption of coal consumption by about 14 million tons, and reduce the crude steel production capacity by 12.04 million tons and pig iron by 16.14 million tons. In order to complete the steel production capacity reduction task, Handan City intends to reduce steel production capacity from the aspects of eliminating outdated equipment, disposing of illegal production capacity replacement, eliminating independent smelting processes, and improving elimination standards. Handan City vigorously implements the innovation-driven strategy, promotes product innovation with technological innovation, and vigorously develops high-tech content, high value-added, high market share and new steel material products. The company's steel products are moving toward high-end, terminal and professional.
[panel summary]
    On the 25th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 61.01 points to close at 15273.58 points, a decrease of 0.40%; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 7.16 points to close at 3761.10 points, a decrease of 0.19%; the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 4.63 points. At 1692.79 points, the decrease was 0.27%. New York crude oil futures prices closed down 0.5% on Wednesday at $102.66 a barrel. New York gold prices closed up 1.5% on Wednesday, at $1,364.20 per ounce. The US dollar index fell 0.23 to close at 80.36, a decrease of 0.28%. Copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose $9 to close at $7,186, an increase of 0.13%.
[Market analysis]
    On the 25th, the period screw 01 opened lower at 3627, and the whole day oscillated around the 3630 platform. The highest in the day was 3637, the lowest was 3617, and the 3626 fell 16 by 0.44%. The funds were short, the transaction volume shrank slightly from the previous day, and the positions decreased. 30,000 hands. Technically, the daily K-line low shocks the Yin cross star, and the short-term 5-day moving average pressure is relatively large. The low level of the KDJ indicator continues to passivate, and the MACD indicator green column slightly shrinks. The spot has fallen steadily. In operation, both long and short sides participate in the light warehouse, paying attention to the pressure of 3645. The snail continues to oscillate during the material period, which has a general impact on the spot.
[Steel Market News]
    â—Ore: The iron ore market on the 25th is mainly stable. In terms of the Platts Index, the general index fell by US$0.5 yesterday, and the current 62% Australian powder index is US$132/ton. Recently, although the general influence of the bidding has rebounded, it has not boosted the confidence of the business. The spot transaction is still very flat. The current market is not very clear. The mine bidding is urgently needed to strengthen confidence. It is expected that there will be no obvious fluctuations in the short term. In terms of domestic mines, the stalemate between the supply and demand sides remained unchanged, and there was no sign of improvement in the transaction. Most miners said that if the market does not improve, it will not be shipped in view of the low profit. It is expected that domestic mines will still be consolidating in the short term. Other markets comply with 60% coarse powder 690-700; 66% fine powder wet base does not include tax 800-805; 62.5% pellet 940; Qian'an 66% fine powder wet base does not include tax 820-830.
    â—Steel billet: On the 25th, Tangshan finished products stabilized and the transaction was still possible. The downstream purchase of blanks was normal. Some merchants started to make low-level replenishment, but the market transactions were still slightly light. The current snails are still running weakly, and the market confidence is sluggish. There is improvement. After the afternoon, the billet fell by 10, Tangshan Guoyi, Xinglong and other ordinary carbon billet including 3010 yuan / ton of factory, low alloy 3130 yuan / ton, traders bare price 2900-2920 yuan / ton. Anfeng and Hongxing ex-factory prices are 3010 yuan / ton.
    ◠Coke: 25 days of secondary metallurgical coke to the factory including tax price of 1,250 yuan / ton, Rizhao secondary metallurgical coke to the factory including tax price of 1330-1340 yuan / ton, Linyi secondary metallurgical coke factory tax price of 1,160 yuan / ton The Qitaihe secondary metallurgical coke ex-factory price is 1290-1320 yuan/ton, Pingdingshan second-grade metallurgical coke ex-factory price is 1280-1310 yuan/ton, Huaibei second-grade metallurgical coke ex-factory includes tax price 1400 yuan/ton, Tangshan The second-grade metallurgical coke to the factory includes the tax price of 1360-1400 yuan / ton, Wuhai second-grade metallurgical coke ex-factory tax price 1030 yuan / ton, Yinchuan 80 coke factory tax-included price 770 yuan / ton, Tianjin Port secondary metallurgical coke warehouse The tax price is 1360-1420 yuan / ton, the coke market is stable, the downstream pressure is increasing, the pressure on the stocks of the coke enterprises is low, and the price can still be supported. It is expected that the short-term market will continue to stabilize.
    â—Building materials: On the 25th, the price of the third-grade big snail of Hegang in Beijing market was 3370 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day; the second-class big snail in Shanghai market was 3470-3520 yuan/ton, compared with the previous one. The day was flat; the Guangzhou market, Guangzhou Iron and Steel, three-level big snail 3680 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton from the previous day.
    ◠Sheet: On the 25th, the Shanghai market hot coil closing price was 3510-3530 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the previous day. The Tianjin market hot coil closing price was 3520-3540 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the previous day. There is a drop, Lecong market hot coil closing price of 3620-3640 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton from the previous day.
[Today's forecast]
    ◠Building materials: Yesterday, domestic building materials fell steadily, with North China and Central China falling 10-40 yuan/ton, and other areas were weak. As the resources of the city increased, the social inventory rebounded, and the terminal demand remained at a low level. The overall transaction was weak; the steel futures fell, the spot confidence was negative, and the pressure on the merchants at the end of the month was reduced. Lack of good news to boost, pre-holiday merchants are cautious in stocking, it is expected that the price of Hegang's three-level big snail in Beijing market is 3,370 yuan/ton, which is flat compared with the previous day; the Shanghai market has two grades of 3470-3520/ton. The day was flat; the Guangzhou market, Guangzhou Iron and Steel, three-level big snail 3680 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day.
    ◠Sheet: In the market, the market opened lower and fluctuated in the long run, the confidence of traders was insufficient, and the mainstream of hot rolling was stable. Specifically, East China and North China remained weak. Under the pressure of funds at the end of the month, merchants actively shipped mainly. The high resources in South China fell, the market was loose, and there was no obvious fluctuation in other regions. However, there are few stocks for downstream purchases before the holiday, and the transactions are still light. Considering that the current fundamentals of the steel market are weak, and the festival is approaching, the market operation space is limited. It is expected that the national hot coil will be consolidating at a low level. Shanghai market 5.5mm mainstream offer 3500-3530 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 5.5mm Tanggang mainstream offer 3510-3540 yuan / ton; Lecong market 5.5mm Liugang mainstream offer 3620-3630 yuan / ton.