Cobalt price fluctuated in April, cobalt city "brake" operation

Abstract 1. The price trend is based on the data of the business community. The cobalt price fluctuated in April. On April 30, the price of metallic cobalt fell to 650,833.31 yuan / ton, and the price of cobalt in April fell by 2.01%, ending the continuous sharp increase since the second half of 2017, entering...

First, the price trend


According to data from the business community, the price of cobalt fluctuated in April. On April 30, the price of metallic cobalt fell to 650,833.31 yuan / ton, and the price of cobalt in April fell by 2.01%. It ended the second half of 2017 and continued to rise sharply, entering a stable adjustment period. The average price of cobalt rose by 73.25% compared with the same period of last year.

Second, the market analysis

Product aspect

Since April, the price of metallic cobalt in the international and domestic markets has fluctuated. As of April 30, the LME market metal cobalt spot price of 88250.00-88750.00 US dollars / ton, closing price of 88,750 US dollars / ton, compared with the beginning of the month, the closing price of 93,250 US dollars / ton fell 4,500 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 4.8%, April LME market cobalt The volume was 58 lots and the transaction was average. Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center on April 30, the price of metal cobalt is 650000-675000 yuan / ton, compared with the spot price of 655,000-675,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, the average price fell 2,500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain

In April 2018, the Automobile Industry Association announced the production and sales data of China's automobiles in March 2018. Among them, new energy vehicles grew at a high rate year-on-year. In March, domestic new energy vehicles produced and sold 68,000 vehicles, up 105% and 117.4% respectively. From January to March 2018, the cumulative production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles were 150,000 and 143,000, respectively, an increase of 156.9% and 154.3% respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles are not afraid of subsidies and landslides to maintain a large increase, but they are currently in the transition period before the new version of the new energy subsidy policy is officially implemented, and the new version of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy with stricter review and lower preferential rate is in June. Formally implemented on the 12th, whether the new energy vehicle market will fall into a trough, or how much the new subsidy policy will affect new energy vehicles is worthy of attention.

According to a report released by the China Information and Communication Research Institute under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in March 2018, the domestic mobile phone market shipped 30.185 million units, down 27.9% year-on-year; from January to March 2018, China’s smartphone shipments were 81.87 million units, It fell by 26.1%. The mobile phone battery is mainly lithium battery, the shipment of mobile phone is decreasing, and the demand for metal cobalt is reduced.

Entreprise's news:

In 2018, a group of "new car power" entrepreneurial auto brands, which are mainly based on Weilai, Xiaopeng, Weimar, Baiteng and Singularity, entered the real-time production time. According to incomplete statistics in the industry, the number of “new vehicles built in the past three years” has reached 314, and most of the new forces in the car have taken the pure electric new energy vehicle route. A large number of new energy vehicles will be put into production, and the demand for cobalt will continue to increase, and the prospect of cobalt is promising.

Katanga's mine has the largest reserves of copper and cobalt in the Congo. In December this year, the company will restart, with an estimated 34,000 tons of cobalt per year. Katanga recently fought a legal battle with its Congo partners. But what is certain is that Simon Tuma-Waku, former chairman of Congo's operations in Katanga and vice president of Congolese mines, said that the problems facing Katanga need to be resolved, but it is unlikely to slow the mining of cobalt.

International dynamics

The Sino-US trade war has had a certain impact on the sales of automobiles. Although the market believes that the trade war has less impact on new energy vehicles, the US's measures to increase taxes on Chinese cars still reduce the market's expected demand for cobalt.

Third, the outlook outlook

From the perspective of supply and demand: on the supply side, as a small metal cobalt with limited resources, its supply to the country, such as Congo, is limited, and supply is growing but not obvious. On the demand side, new energy vehicles are performing strongly and the future trend is still optimistic. In view of this, cobalt is still in short supply, but in the short term, due to the Sino-US trade war, the growth of new energy vehicles will slow down, and the price of cobalt may fluctuate in the short term.

From the product characteristics and fundamentals of cobalt, the metal cobalt in the London market fluctuated in April, which was the release of the risk of excessive growth of the previous cobalt price. At the same time, the Sino-US trade war caused the market to expect a decline in demand for cobalt. However, from the long-term perspective of product characteristics and resource distribution of cobalt and cobalt, cobalt is a small metal, with low output and concentrated supply of resources. It is easily affected by capital speculation and geopolitics, and it is easy to rise and fall when demand is sufficient. Recently, the market is not expected to develop new energy vehicles. However, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are still on the rise, and the demand for cobalt is still increasing. Under this market, it is difficult for cobalt prices to fall sharply.

According to the analysis of the data analysts of the business community, the recent macroeconomic impact, the expected reduction of new energy vehicles, and the urgency of the demand for metallic cobalt have alleviated the gap in supply and demand. To some extent, the cobalt price has been adjusted in the spot market, but the overall metal Cobalt demand is strong, and cobalt prices are hard to fall sharply. However, due to the fact that the growth rate of cobalt in the first quarter far exceeded market expectations, although a small drop in April released some water, the risk of high cobalt prices is still high. Investors can still be optimistic about the cobalt market in the long run, but the expectation is not too high, and the risk of falling cobalt prices should be dealt with in the short term.

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